MEES 613/BIOL 764/PUAF698U
3 credits, 1 afternoon per week, Thursday, 12-3 PM
(this is also a core requirement for the Ecological Economics
This course will familiarize participants with dynamic systems modeling with applications to both ecological and economic systems over a number of spatial and temporal scales. We will use STELLA, an icon-based dynamic modeling software package which is very easy to learn and use, and requires no previous math or modeling experience. STELLA runs in both the Macintosh and Windows operating systems.
The course uses a "problem based learning" format in which participants define their own modeling problem and then solve it over the course of the semester. The course will meet one afternoon a week. The first several sessions will be an introduction to dynamic systems modeling concepts and STELLA, with several worked out examples. Participants will work through example exercises, read and report on models in the current literature, and define, build, calibrate and run their own model, either alone or (preferably) in a small team. The remaining sessions will be devoted to answering questions about the ongoing modeling projects, sharing progress, and constructive feedback. Participants will be expected to produce a "publishable" project by the end of the course. Course grading will be: 25% exercises, 25% class presentations, 50% project.
The course will be offered over IVN, with instructors in College Park, Frostburg, and Solomons, Maryland. There is also a web-based supplement to the course at http://iee.umces.edu/AV/Simmod.html
See also the following web sites:
Web based course supplement: http://iee.umces.edu/AV/Simmod.html
|1.||Aug. 30|| Introduction to Systems Modeling and STELLA
| Haefner 1997, Ch. 1-2
Hannon and Ruth 1994 Ch. 1
Ford 1999 Ch 1-9;
Costanza et al. 1993
Costanza and Ruth 1997
|2.||Sept. 6|| Types of Models, Examples and Case Studies
||Costanza|| Hannon & Ruth 1994 Chs. 2-6
Fitz et al. 1996
Maxwell and Costanza 1993
Cornwell and Costanza 1994
Chumra et al 1992
|3.||Sept. 13|| Conceptualization Phase/ Modeling Philosophy
||Costanza|| Haefner 1997, Ch. 2-3
|4.||Sept. 20|| Model Construction Techniques
||Voinov|| Haefner 1997, Ch. 4-5
Hannon and Ruth 1994
Voinov and Akhremenkov 1990
|5.||Sept. 27|| Parameter Estimation, Calibration and Testing
||Voinov|| Haefner 1997, Ch. 6-10
Oreskes et al. 1994
|6.||Oct. 4||Mediated Modeling||van den Belt|
|7.||Oct. 11|| Empirical vs. process-based models
|8.||Oct. 18|| Landscape Models
(CELSS, ELM, PLM)
|Voinov||Costanza et al., 1990
Voinov et al., 1999
|9.||Oct. 25|| Individual-Based Models
|10.||Nov. 1|| Compartment Models (CENTURY, GEM)
||Boumans||Fitz, et al., 1996|
|11.||Nov. 8|| Aggregation and Scaling
Spatially Explicit Models
|Gardner|| Haefner 1997, Ch. 15, 16
Costanza and Maxwell 1994
Gardner et al. 1982
Rastetter et al. 1992
Jarvis et al. 1986
Voinov et al 1999
Costanza et al. 1990
|12.||Nov. 15|| Model complexity,
Questions and Answers Session
|Nov. 22||Thanksgiving||no class|
|13.||Nov. 29|| Final Project Reports
(presentations @ 30 min each)
|14.||Dec.6|| Final Project Reports
(presentations @ 30 min each)
|Dec.19||Last day of exams - Final Projects Due|
Bockstael, N., R. Costanza, I. Strand, W. Boynton, K. Bell, and L. Wainger. 1995. Ecological economic modeling and valuation of ecosystems. Ecological Economics. 14:143-159.
Capra, F. 1996. The web of life. Resurgence. 178:24-29
Chmura, G. L., R. Costanza, and E. C. Kosters. 1992. Modelling coastal marsh stability in response to sea level rise: a case study in coastal Louisiana, USA. Ecological Modelling. 64:47-64
Cornwell, L. and R. Costanza. 1994. An experimental analysis of the effectiveness of an environmental assurance bonding system on player behavior in a simulated firm. Ecological Economics.11:213-226
Costanza, R. and T. Maxwell. 1994. Resolution and predictability: an approach to the scaling problem. Landscape Ecology, 9:47-57
Costanza, R., F. H. Sklar, and M. L. White. 1990. Modeling coastal landscape dynamics. BioScience 40:91-107
Costanza, R., L. Wainger, C. Folke, and K-G Mäler. 1993. Modeling complex ecological economic systems: toward an evolutionary, dynamic understanding of people and nature BioScience 43:545-555.
Ford, Andrew. 1999. Modeling the environment: an introduction to systems dynamics modeling of environmental systems. Island Press. Washington, DC
Fitz, H. C., E. B. DeBellevue, R. Costanza, R. Boumans, T. Maxwell, L. Wainger, and F. H. Sklar. 1996 Development of a general ecosystem model (GEM) for a range of scales and ecosystems. Ecological Modeling 88:263-297.
Gardner, R. H., W. G. Cale and R. V. O'Neill. 1982. Robust analysis of aggregation error. Ecology, 63: 1771-1779.
Haefner, J. W. 1997. Modeling biological systems: principles and applications. Chapman and Hall, New York.
Hannon, B. and M. Ruth. 1994. Dynamic modeling. Springer-Verlag, New York
Maxwell, T. and R. Costanza. 1993. An approach to modeling the dynamics of evolutionary self organization. Ecological Modeling. 69:149-161.
Meadows, D. H., D. L. Meadows, and J. Randers. 1992. Beyond the limits: confronting global collapse, envisioning a sustainable future.
Nordhaus, William D 1994 Managing the commons: The economics of climate change. MIT press, Cambridge. 213 pp.
Oreskes, N., K. Shrader-Frechette, and K. Belitz. 1994. Verification, validation, and confirmation of numerical models in the earth sciences. Science. 263:641-646
Rotmans, J. 1990. Image: an integrated model to assess the greenhouse effect
Senge, P. M. 1990. The fifth discipline: the art and practice of the learning organization. Currency-Doubleday, New York.
STELLA manuals. High Performance Systems, Inc.
Swartzman, G. L. and S. P. Kaluzny. 1987. Ecological simulation primer. Macmillan, New York.
Voinov, A.A. and A.A. Akhremenkov, 1990. Simulation modelling system for aquatic bodies. Ecological Modeling, 52: 181-205.
Voinov. A, R. Costanza, L. Wainger, R. Boumans, F. Villa, T. Maxwell and H. Voinov. 1999. The Patuxent landscape model: Integrated ecological economic modeling of a watershed. Environmental Modelling and Software 14:473-491