Inauguration Event

February 18, 2016



Mini-Symposium

SYSTEMS AND SUSTAINABILITY IN TIME AND SPACE


Speakers

Click on the name to see abstract and download slides

9:00-9:15 Welcome and Introduction Chair: Menno-Jan Kraak Prof. Geovisual Analytics and Cartography, ITC, University of Twente President of the International Cartographic Association
9:15-9:40 "Building a Sustainable and Desirable Future: Shared Goals, Integrated Models, Well-being Metrics, and Societal Therapy" Robert Costanza - via Skype from Australia Prof., Chair in Public Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, Editor in Chief, Solutions Journal
9:40-10:05 "Modelling and communicating the multi-actor dynamics of climate change mitigation" Klaus Hasselman Prof. emeritus, Founding Director of the Max Planck Institute of Meteorology, Hamburg. Vice-Chairman of the European Climate Forum, Germany
10:05-10:30 "Current challenges in water management: from sustainability concepts to data, models and decisions? and back? Are we still dancing in the dark?" Peter Goethals & Martin Volk Prof. Ecological informatics and water management Department of Applied ecology and environmental biology, Ghent University, Belgium
10:30-10:45 Coffee/Tea
10:45-11:10 "Tools in sustainability science" Bert J M de Vries Prof. em. Dr., IMEW/Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Faculteit Geowetenschappen, Universiteit Utrecht
11:10-11:35 "Urban Physics: Towards Sustainable Building & Cities" Bert Blocken Prof. Chair of Urban Physics & Building Physics Technische Universiteit Eindhoven, The Department of the Built Environment, NL
11:35-12:00 "Toy Worlds and Stone Age Economics" Nick Winder Principal Research Associate, Newcastle University, UK COMPLEX project leader
12:00-13:00 Lunch (on your own)
13:00-13:25 "Bridging spatial scales in sustainable land use" Peter Verburg Prof. Environmental Spatial Analysis, Head of the Department Spatial Analysis and Decision Support Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, NL
13:25-13:50 "Intercomparison of impact models and robust climate change projections" Valentina Krysanova Dr., Flagship project leader, Research Domain II "Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities" Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany
13:50-14:15 "Spatio-temporal variability of air pollution exposure - What are we missing by using static population maps when assessing public health effects?" Stefan Reis Group Leader 'Modelling & Integrated Assessment" at NERC Centre for Ecology & Hydrology University of Edinburgh, UK Honorary Senior Lecturer, University of Exeter Medical School
14:15-15:00 Final remarks, discussion and wrap-up. Tom Veldkamp Prof. Spatial Environmental Quality Rector/Dean ITC, University of Twente, NL
15:00-16:00 Coffee/Tea/Discussion continued
16:00-17:00 "Systems and Sustainability in Time and Space" Alexey Voinov Inauguration ceremony and lecture.

Abstracts and slides of talks

Robert Costanza

Building a Sustainable and Desirable Future: Shared Goals, Integrated Models, Well-being Metrics, and Societal Therapy

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Klaus Hasselman

Modelling and communicating the multi-actor dynamics of climate change mitigation

An overview is given of the principal features of system dynamic models designed to illuminate and quantify the impact of the diverse interests of the various actors whose competing strategies determine the evolution of the complex socio-economic-climate system. Two examples are given: the resolution of the Euro crisis through a Green Marshall plan, rather than the current austerity policy with attendant recessions and unemployment; and three alternative responses to the Chinese export of subsidized solar panels: punitive import tariffs, no action, or matching subsidies. The purpose of the models is not to present solutions, but rather to provide tools to resolve conflicts of interest.

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Peter Goethals & Martin Volk

Current challenges in water management: from sustainability concepts to data, models and decisions? and back? Are we still dancing in the dark?

An overview is given of the principal features of system dynamic models designed to illuminate and quantify the impact of the diverse interests of the various actors whose competing strategies determine the evolution of the complex socio-economic-climate system. Two examples are given: the resolution of the Euro crisis through a Green Marshall plan, rather than the current austerity policy with attendant recessions and unemployment; and three alternative responses to the Chinese export of subsidized solar panels: punitive import tariffs, no action, or matching subsidies. The purpose of the models is not to present solutions, but rather to provide tools to resolve conflicts of interest.

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Bert J M de Vries

Tools in sustainability science

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Bert Blocken

Urban Physics: Towards Sustainable Building & Cities

Urban physics is the science and engineering of physical processes in urban areas. It basically refers to the transfer of heat and mass in the outdoor and indoor urban environment, and its interaction with humans, fauna, flora and materials. Urban physics is a rapidly increasing focus area as it is key to understanding and addressing the grand societal challenges climate change, energy, health, security, transport and aging. It is also essential in the strive towards sustainable buildings and cities. The main assessment tools in urban physics are field measurements, full-scale and reduced-scale laboratory measurements and numerical simulation methods including Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD). In the past 50 years, especially CFD has undergone a successful transition from an emerging field into an increasingly established field in urban physics research, practice and design. This presentation consists of two parts. In the first part, the importance of urban physics related to the grand societal challenges is described, after which the spatial and temporal scales in urban physics and the associated model categories are outlined. In the second part, some applications of CFD in urban physics are provided. Possibilities and limitations are discussed and finally, an outlook to the future of CFD for urban physics is given.

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Nick Winder

Toy Worlds and Stone Age Economics

Science-based archaeology in the 1960s was a largely forensic affair. The archaeologist counted bones, stones, pots and seeds and used the static data to make inferences about extinct ecodynamics. A lot of early projects dies of data-poisoning - creating more data than they could analyse and then foundering because the information you really needed was not there or could not be extracted. In the later 60s and 70s there were calls for a process-based, dynamic approach and simulation models began to be used in the later 70s and 80s. This work creates a number of interesting problems. If you haven’t even got a species-list or detailed micro-climate data, what sort of models can you usefully build. It was relatively easy building toy-world models that told you about ecosystems in general, but what could these models tell you about circumstances in region X over time-interval Y? And what, if anything were those data good for? This paper revisits one of those case-studies to see whether any lessons of lasting value were learned.

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Peter Verburg

Bridging spatial scales in sustainable land use

Land use is reflecting the dynamic interactions of humans with the environment. Land use change has important impacts on the climate system, hydrology and geochemical cycles. At the same time, changes in land use systems affect the provisioning of ecosystem services with impacts on human livelihoods and vulnerability to environmental risks. Land use change is, thus, both a driver of global change and a result of global change processes. Therefore, land use provides the option to mitigate and adapt to global change, providing sustainability solutions. Understanding changes in land systems requires the integration of research on global processes that drive interactions and teleconnections between world regions with research of the local realities and impacts of land use changes. In my talk I will provide examples of research on the analysis and modelling of land use change and ecosystem services across different scale and address the role of modelling in translating scientific knowledge to land management strategies.

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Valentina Krysanova, Fred Hattermann, Tobias Vetter and Shaochun Huang

Intercomparison of regional‐scale hydrological models and robust climate impact projections

Recognition of the dual relationship between sustainable development and climate change points to a need for the exploration of policies which jointly address sustainable development and climate change. The Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI‐MIP) is a community‐driven modelling effort bringing together impact modellers across sectors and scales to create more consistent and comprehensive projections of the climate change impacts. An overview of current state of the regional‐scale hydrological model intercomparison in ISI‐MIP will be given. The scope of the modelling includes nine models applied to twelve large‐scale river basins worldwide. The modeling tools include: ECOMAG, HBV, HYMOD, HYPE, mHM, SWAT, SWIM, VIC and WaterGAP. The river basins included in the study are: the Rhine and Tagus in Europe, the Niger and Blue Nile in Africa, the Ganges, Lena, Upper Yellow and Upper Yangtze in Asia, the Upper Mississippi and Upper Amazon in America, and the Darling in Australia with the drainage areas ranging between 67,490 km2 (Tagus) to 2,460,000 km2 (Lena). The model calibration and validation was done using reanalysis WATCH climate data for all cases, also checking the high and low percentiles of river discharge. The results, evaluated with twelve statistical criteria, are good for the monthly and seasonal river discharge and high flows, but they are poorer for low flow. Climate change impacts were simulated and analyzed using climate scenarios from five Earth System Models: HadGEM2‐ES, IPSL‐CM5A‐LR, MIROC‐ESM‐CHEM, GFDL‐ESM2M and NorESM1‐M for four RCPs. The robust projections with a high or moderate certainty were found for six basins: Tagus, Lena, MacKenzie, Ganges, Upper Yangtze and Rhine. The cross‐scale comparison of impacts on the long‐term average seasonal dynamics simulated by the global and regional models has shown that (a) the medians are comparable for some of the basins and differ for the others; and (b) the uncertainty ranges are higher for the global model outputs.

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Stefan Reis

Spatio-temporal variability of air pollution exposure

What are we missing by using static population maps when assessing public health effects? We know, that ambient air pollution levels vary substantially in space and time. Different pollutants originate from a range of emission sources with distinct time patterns, and complex interactions in the atmosphere lead to chemical transformation and physical transport of primary and secondary pollutants - often over long distances. At the same time, the population potentially exposed to pollution is not static. People commute to work, spending a substantial amount of time away from their location of residence (work, school, sports, social activities). However, we still often treat the population as fixed at their residential location and assume, that annual average concentrations of outdoor air pollution and this location is a suitable predictor for associations between exposure and health effects. Methods for personal exposure monitoring are gradually being used more, and we can utilise atmospheric chemistry transport models, in conjunction with personal sensors, to get a better representation of exposure on population level. Here, we provide some examples of what such an approach can deliver.

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Alexey Voinov

Systems and Sustainability in Time and Space

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Location: Waaier Building, Prof. Breedveld Room